Expert Warns US-Israel Tensions with Iran Could Trigger Prolonged Conflict
Ali Vaez, Iran project director and senior adviser at the International Crisis Group, said that applying military pressure on Tehran is unlikely to achieve a sustainable outcome. He emphasized that repeated diplomatic failures and growing mistrust have pushed Washington toward a conflict without a clear exit strategy. Vaez spoke to Anadolu on Saturday during the STRATCOM Summit 2026 in Istanbul.
Vaez criticized US President Donald Trump’s negotiation approach, arguing that it contributed to the collapse of diplomacy with Iran. “President Trump always surrounded himself by people who were in charge of the negotiations, who did not share his interest in any kind of serious agreement… (They) conveyed to him this view that Iran would be able to capitulate to him under pressure so he doesn't need to engage in any kind of give and take,” Vaez said.
He added that the assumption that Iran would accept a one-sided deal was unrealistic and effectively doomed negotiations during both of Trump’s terms. Vaez also noted that Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement—the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—eroded trust and complicated subsequent diplomatic efforts, including initiatives under President Joe Biden in 2021–2022 to revive negotiations.
“The military option is not a solution,” Vaez said, pointing out that even after Trump’s claims last year that Iran’s nuclear program had been “obliterated,” fighting resumed within months.
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